Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially About the Future.

نویسندگان

  • Tracy R Geoffrion
  • Robert D B Jaquiss
چکیده

I am writing this column in early December, prior to the IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC) in Florence, but after the IEEE Technical Activity Board (TAB) meeting in New Jersey and the IEEE Control Systems Society (CSS) Executive Committee meeting that was held in Stutt-gart. Amid all this travel, I have been contemplating reoccurring themes at the TAB and CSS meetings, both this year and in the past. One important theme relates to technology change and its potential impact on the future of CSS. Another is why our numerous volunteers work so hard for their professional Society. I teach a first-year course on electrical engineering careers. The final lecture includes a discussion of the technology changes over the last quarter century. For example, music storage and delivery has transitioned significantly: vinyl records, cassettes, eight tracks, portable cassette players , portable CD players, MP3 players, iPods, streaming media. For beginning engineering students, as they start their careers, contemplating their potential contributions to technologically changing fields is an exciting prospect. However, for their future employers, such technology change holds both risk due to obsolescence and reward from new product sales. Similarly, technology has significantly changed CSS conference and journal operations over the last few decades. Conference papers were previously hand prepared on oversized mats, delivered by postal services to a printer, reduced in size, and bound by the printer into multivolume sets over a foot thick that were shipped to the conference and carried back to home institutions for later reading. Now papers are submitted in final form as pdf files, automatically checked for format and plagiarism, and distributed electronically via IEEE Xplore or a tiny (and easily carried) memory stick. Similar changes have affected journal operations and the review process for both journals and conferences. This same time frame has seen the development of new, versatile, and inexpensive means to share software, data, movies of experimental results, and lectures. These developments positively affect the rate and impact of our theoretical, algorithmic, and implementation research developments. Thankfully, due to the thoughtful leadership of the CSS, our conferences, transactions, and magazine all have both high-quality technical content and the sound financial foundation that enables their continuity. Due to the value that it provides, CSS membership is growing and becoming more international. Members of the CSS Executive Committee end a process control tour in Stuttgart, Germany.

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Grey Prediction Model for Forecasting Electricity consumption

Accurate prediction of the future electricity consumption is crucial for production electricity management. Since the storage of electrical energy is very difficult, reliable and accurate prediction of power consumption is important. Different approaches for this purpose were used. In this paper, Grey model (1,1) based on grey system theory has been used for forecasting results. Annual electric...

متن کامل

From MITL to Timed Automata

We show how to transform formulae written in the real-time temporal logic MITL into timed automata that recognize their satisfying models. This compositional construction is much simpler than previously known and can be easily implemented. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Niels Bohr

متن کامل

Bayesian Prediction of future observation based on doubly censored data under exponential distribution

In many experiments about lifetime examination, we will faced on restrictions of time and sample size, which this factors cause that the researcher can’t access to all of data. Therefore, it is valuable to study prediction of unobserved values based on information of available data. in this paper we have studied the prediction of unobserved values in two status of one-sample and two-sample, whe...

متن کامل

Protein Secondary Structure Prediction: a Literature Review with Focus on Machine Learning Approaches

DNA sequence, containing all genetic traits is not a functional entity. Instead, it transfers to protein sequences by transcription and translation processes. This protein sequence takes on a 3D structure later, which is a functional unit and can manage biological interactions using the information encoded in DNA. Every life process one can figure is undertaken by proteins with specific functio...

متن کامل

Antimicrobial Drug Resistance: "Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially about the Future"1

Evolution of bacteria towards resistance to antimicrobial drugs, including multidrug resistance, is unavoidable because it represents a particular aspect of the general evolution of bacteria that is unstoppable. Therefore, the only means of dealing with this situation is to delay the emergence and subsequent dissemination of resistant bacteria or resistance genes. Resistance to antimicrobial dr...

متن کامل

Land use changes analysis and prediction using remote sensing and QGIS MOLUSCE Plugin in the Siahkal County

Quantifying land use change dynamics is critical in tackling environmental and socio-economic challenges such as climate change in recent years. This study takes Siahkal County in Guilan Province as the research subject and analyzes the land use changes in two different years: 2000 and 2021, and predicts the change in 2031. We carried out land use change analysis using LANDSAT-7 ETM+ and LANDSA...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Critical care medicine

دوره 39 8  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2011